Waiting On Apple Cellphone

    大多数新移动电话登场的时候都不会在华尔街上引起轰动。如果它们能掀起轩然大波，通常是因为分析人士之前就已见识过这个产品了。但是，当即将登场的手机的生产商可能是苹果电脑公司(Apple Computer Inc.)，并且苹果公司还没有证实这个产品存在与否时，市场上各种传言已经无休无止地冒了出来。

    市场有传闻称，苹果将推出一款集热门产品iPod数字音乐播放器的娱乐功能和手机功能于一身的设备。在过去六个月中，这些传闻不断升温。华尔街的分析人士及投资者相信，这个设备很可能在将于下个月举办的MacWorld会议上首次亮相。通常苹果首席执行长史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)会在这个在旧金山举行的会议上揭开一些新产品的面纱。

    进入手机业务领域很可能会大幅增加苹果的收入。从长期来看，这对现有股东是有利的。不过，现在苹果公司股价处于超高水平，因此目前还不是买入的好时机，特别是苹果公司下个月不推出新手机或者在推出过程中磕磕绊绊令华尔街感到失望的话更是如此。

    最近的一些分析报告都预测苹果公司会在几年的时间内会售出数百万部手机，进而带来数十亿美元的收入。一些分析人士甚至更进一步，预测了苹果推出手机后对无线运营商、芯片厂商及其他部件供应商的影响。

    Sanford C. Bernstein的分析师托尼•萨科纳吉(Toni Sacconaghi)说，金融界对此的期望非常高。

    萨科纳吉不持有任何股票，他对苹果股票的评级相当于“中性”。他认为，如果消费者选择苹果手机，这可能会分流iPod的销售量，抑制公司财务状况的上升趋势。

    苹果公司发言人拒绝置评。

    据知情人士透露，苹果公司的手机正在筹划中。其中一位知情人士表示，手机最初版本中可能会包括语音及音乐功能，但是没有电子邮件功能及文字处理软件。苹果公司最近一些动向也调足了外界的胃口。苹果公司就一款类似于iPod的无线设备提出的专利申请最近出现在美国专利局(U.S. Patent and Trademark Office)的网站上。分析人士及博客评论人曾普遍猜测，苹果公司的手机产品会以“iPhone”命名，但是这种可能现在看起来更令人疑惑了：本周早些时候，思科系统(Cisco Systems Inc., CSCO, 简称：思科)以“iPhone”为名推出了一系列互联网电话产品。

    苹果公司首席财务长彼得•奥本海默(Peter Oppenheimer)曾在7月表示，公司正在对日益增多的具有音乐播放功能的手机酝酿有力的回击。这番评论，加上iPod及Macintosh业务的强劲收益使当时陷入今年最低点的股价重新焕发活力。自那之后，苹果股价飙升了60%以上。周四，大盘走低，苹果股票在那斯达克市场下跌1.86美元，收于82.90美元，跌幅2.2%。

    相对收益来说，苹果的股价比其他以电脑业务为主的公司都要高。它的市盈率大约为36.50倍，高于戴尔公司(Dell Inc.)的20.70倍及惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard Co.)的18.72倍。

    很多分析人士认为，手机业务蕴含着巨大的商机，苹果公司会因此而投身于该行业的竞争中。iPod业务一直以来都是苹果公司的金矿，它在截至9月30日的上个财年中为公司带来了76.8亿美元的收入，占公司总收入的40%。苹果公司在过去的五年中共售出了约7,000万个iPod。

    今年，手机生产商预计将发出近10亿部手机。与此相比，苹果iPod的销售量就黯淡无光了。即使苹果公司只能从手机市场分一小杯羹，也会为它带来巨大的收入飞跃。

    摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师吕贝卡•朗克尔(Rebecca Runkle)在上周的一份调查报告中估计，苹果明年会售出600万部手机，在2008年将售出1,200万部，两年新增收入总计将达到54.1亿美元。

    朗克尔写道，她被告知苹果公司的两款手机机型已于本月投入生产，它们的容量分别为4G及8G，类似于iPod nano，其容量足以储存数千首歌曲。她是摩根士丹利对苹果股票评级最好的一个。苹果公司是摩根士丹利投资银行业务的客户。

    苹果公司推出手机能否成功的关键在于，苹果公司如何对它们进行市场推广。瑞银(UBS)无线行业分析师约翰•霍杜利克(John Hodulik)上周说，他预计苹果推出的手机将使用苹果品牌的无线服务，它可能会购买Cingular的网络服务来搭建网络。Cingular是美国最大的无线运营商，由美国电话电报公司(AT&T Inc.)以及南贝尔公司(BellSouth Corp.)合资创立。Cingular拒绝置评。

    与Cingular或其他运营商建立这样的关系成本高昂且风险很高。一旦建立这种关系，苹果就成为了所谓的移动虚拟网络经营商(MVNO)。一些MVNO的日子一直都不太好过。华特-迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)的ESPN电话服务在推出不到一年的时间内就被取消了，因为消费者对配有体育消息内容的手机不感兴趣。

    此外，苹果或许还得承担电话公司的一些责任，比如收费以及提供客户服务等。苹果以往主要通过销售硬件来赚取利润的经营模式很难在手机行业找到用武之地，因为手机运营商通常用手机价格折扣来吸引客户，而服务才是其利润的主要来源。

    如果只出售手机而不提供无线服务，苹果可能会做得更好。客户可以到运营商那里购买无线服务，激活手机。mPortal Inc.的文卡特斯(D.P. Venkatesh)说，这是在美国以外最普遍的一种经营模式。该公司为MVNO开发软件。

    华尔街认为，尽管苹果进入手机市场面临的风险很大，但是它忽视手机市场的话其风险甚至更高。手机生产商在不断提高产品的娱乐功能，设计手机的时候不忘增加音乐重放功能，并且不断扩大手机的容量。瑞典爱立信(Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson)及日本索尼公司(Sony Corp.)成立的合资企业索尼爱立信(Sony Ericsson)表示，在截至9月的14个月中，它在全球共销售了1,550万部Walkman音乐手机。

    并不是所有的苹果投资者，甚至是一些看好苹果的投资者，都热衷于苹果手机。

    苹果公司的股票是Jacob Internet Fund投资组合经理瑞安•雅各布(Ryan Jacob)所持股票中第六大股票。雅各布说，苹果或将推出手机对他今年夏天增购苹果股票的决定一点影响都没有。他对苹果公司的Macintosh电脑业务的增长潜力更感兴趣。他认为电脑业务比手机业务更有利可图。

    他说，他并不为手机业务感到兴奋。“我认为对苹果来说它可能是一个利润丰厚的业务，但是它同样是一个竞争激烈的业务。”

THE INTRODUCTION of most cellular phones doesn't cause much buzz on Wall Street, and when it does it usually is because analysts have actually seen the gadgets. But when the cellphone maker could be Apple Computer Inc. and the company hasn't even confirmed the existence of the device, the chatter just won't stop.

In the past six months, talk about an Apple device that combines the entertainment functions of the company's hit iPod digital music player with a cellphone has reached new heights. Wall Street analysts and investors believe a device will likely debut next month at MacWorld, the San Francisco conference where Apple Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs typically unveils a grab bag of new products.

That the hypersecretive Apple has stayed silent on its phone plans has only amplified speculation about a device. This has helped to propel the Cupertino, Calif., company's stock to near-record territory, though the stock has pulled back recently after Apple delayed filing its annual report due to its continuing investigation into stock-option grants.

Entering the cellphone business likely would give Apple a huge revenue boost, which would be good for current shareholders over the long term. For the moment, however, the stock is trading at lofty prices, so now might not be the right time to jump in, especially if Apple disappoints Wall Street by not unveiling the phone next month or stumbles in rolling it out.

Several recent analyst reports forecast that Apple would sell millions of phones within a few years, bringing in billions of dollars in revenue. Some analysts go even further, predicting the impact of an Apple cellphone on wireless carriers, chip makers and other parts suppliers.

'The anticipation is extraordinary in the financial community,' says Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

Mr. Sacconaghi, who doesn't own any shares himself, has the equivalent of a 'neutral' rating on the stock. Mr. Sacconaghi believes an Apple phone could cannibalize iPod sales if consumers opt for the phone instead, limiting the financial upside.

An Apple spokesman declined to comment.

People familiar with the matter say Apple's cellphone is in the works. One person says it likely would have voice and music capabilities in its initial version, but not email and word-processing software. Apple has provided some tantalizing clues about its plans. An Apple patent application related to a wireless iPod-like device was recently made public on the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office's Web site. Analysts and bloggers have widely speculated that the Apple cellphone could be called the iPhone, but the prospects of that look more doubtful now: Earlier this week, Cisco Systems Inc. released a family of Internet phones under the name iPhone.

Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said in July that the company was preparing a competitive response to the increasing array of cellphones with music-playing capabilities. That, along with strong results from its iPod and Macintosh businesses, helped revive Apple's stock, which was then near its low for the year. Apple's shares have since climbed more than 60%. Yesterday, in a down day for the overall market, the shares fell 2.2%, or $1.86, to $82.90 in 4 p.m. composite trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Relative to earnings, Apple is pricier than some other computer-focused companies. Its price-to-earnings ratio is about 36.50, more expensive than Dell Inc.'s 20.70 and Hewlett-Packard Co.'s 18.72.

Many analysts believe Apple will dive into the cellphone fray because of the huge opportunity. The iPod business has been a gold mine for Apple. The devices produced $7.68 billion in revenue in the last fiscal year ending Sept. 30, or 40% of all revenue. It sold nearly 70 million iPods in the past five years.

Yet those numbers pale in comparison with the nearly one billion cellphones manufacturers are expected to ship this year. Even if Apple captures only a small share of that business, it could represent a revenue bump.

In a research report last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Rebecca Runkle estimated Apple could sell six million cellphones next year and 12 million in 2008, generating $5.41 billion in new revenue for both years combined.

Ms. Runkle wrote that she had been told that two cellphone models went into production this month with four-gigabyte and eight-gigabyte storage capacities, similar to the iPod nano and enough to store as many as a few thousand songs. She has Morgan Stanley's most positive rating on the stock. Apple is an investment-banking client of the bank.

Key to the success of any Apple phone would be how it markets them. John Hodulik, a wireless analyst for UBS, last week said he expects Apple to introduce the phone for use with an Apple-branded wireless service by purchasing wholesale network service from Cingular, the nation's largest wireless carrier and a joint venture of AT&T Inc. and BellSouth Corp. Cingular declined to comment.

Forming such a relationship with Cingular or another carrier -- in which Apple would become a so-called mobile virtual network operator, or MVNO -- is expensive and risky. Some MVNOs have struggled. Walt Disney Co.'s ESPN phone service was abandoned after less than a year when consumers failed to show interest in cellphones packed with sports content.

Apple also would have to take on the responsibilities of a phone company, including billing and customer service. Its historical model of turning a profit mostly on sales of hardware would be difficult to replicate in an industry where cellphone carriers lure customers in by discounting handsets and earn most of their profit from selling the service.

Apple might do better selling handsets without wireless service, allowing consumers to take the phones to carriers to have them activated. That is the business model most prevalent outside the U.S., says D.P. Venkatesh of mPortal Inc., which has developed software for MVNOs.

As big as the risks are, Wall Street believes it would be riskier for Apple to ignore the cellphone market. Handset makers are improving the entertainment functions of their products, designing them with music playback in mind and adding more storage capacity. Sony Ericsson, a joint venture between Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson of Sweden and Japan's Sony Corp., said it sold 15.5 million Walkman music phones world-wide in the 14 months ended in September.

Not all Apple investors, even bullish ones, are as enthusiastic about an Apple phone.

Ryan Jacob, portfolio manager at Jacob Internet Fund, has Apple as his sixth-largest holding. Mr. Jacob said the prospect of an Apple cellphone had little to do with his decision to purchase additional Apple shares this summer. He is more interested in the growth possibilities for Apple's Macintosh computer business, which he believes will be more profitable than any cellphone.

'I can't get as excited,' about the cellphone, he says. 'I think it's potentially a very lucrative business for them, but a very competitive business.'